Market adjustment heavy truck sales deposit worry

According to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, from January to June this year, the heavy truck market sold a total of 403,000 vehicles of various types, an increase of 8.4% from 372,000 units in the same period last year. Compared with the 17% year-on-year decline in the first quarter of this year, the second quarter was a critical period for the heavy-duty truck sales to go from negative to positive in the first half of this year. From the second quarter data, the sales of heavy trucks in the quarter totaled 233,913 units, which was a substantial increase of 39% year-on-year. In particular, in the traditional off-season in June, the “off-season is not thin”, with the sales of 75,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 51% and a slight decrease of 2.8% from the previous quarter.

This impressive performance of heavy trucks drove the price of Hujiao out of a period from the "flying down" in the first quarter to the "shock rebound" in the second quarter. “The heavy truck industry is the “big head” of the rubber market and accounts for about 70% of the demand for rubber.” Zhan Jianping, an analyst at Hongyuan Securities Chemical Industry, told the China Securities Journal that heavy truck sales have a strong correlation with rubber trends. . Judging from the market performance of previous years, 2009 was affected by the 4 trillion stimulus, infrastructure investment increased, and the heavy truck sales increased drastically, resulting in a stronger rubber price. The Hujiao market experienced a big market. However, with the advancement of capacity reduction and the country’s increase in the macro-control of the real estate market, the reduction in infrastructure investment and the decline in heavy truck sales, the Hujiao market has followed a downturn.

It is worth noting that for heavy investment in capital goods, such as heavy investment, the first half of the fixed asset investment, especially the recovery of infrastructure investment and real estate investment is very important. However, at the same time as terminal demand recovery, heavy truck sales have more or less "virtual growth".

The China Bond Ratings Report believes that due to the combined effects of various factors, such as leading to early purchases and demand for new products, the heavy trucks will decline at the end of the second quarter and achieve positive growth, which will in turn lead to significant phase improvements in commercial vehicles. However, the early purchase in the second quarter has a certain degree of overdraft short-term demand, coupled with the lack of macroeconomic recovery, the high-speed growth of heavy trucks deviating from the economic fundamentals in the second half of the year is not sustainable, and the growth rate is expected to fall.

Some analysts also pointed out that due to early invoicing and advance consumption, the "virtual growth" driven by the national 4 standard not only affected the trend of the heavy truck market in the first half of the year, but also further increased the sales growth in the first half of the year (heavy truck industry from January to May this year. The year-on-year increase was 1.8% from January to June, which reached 8.4%. It also affected the development of the heavy-duty truck market in the second half of the year, especially in the third quarter, and brought more uncertainty and negative factors to the heavy-duty truck industry in the second half of the year.

If heavy truck sales do not have the worry of “inflated”, then the semi-annual report of the heavy-duty truck industry should have the same impressive performance. However, from the summary of the auto industry's mid-year report, the growth rate of operating income and net profit of the passenger vehicle industry has increased by more than 20% year-on-year, while the performance of the heavy truck industry has continued to decline. In the first half of the year, the growth rate of the truck industry was -10%, and the growth rate of net profit was -40%. Taking Aeolus as an example, the company’s first-half revenue fell 17.14% year-on-year; net profit attributable to the parent company decreased 6.21% year-on-year. According to the analysis, the company's domestic matching market was mainly due to the poor performance of construction machinery and heavy trucks.

Monita’s latest survey of heavy truck dealers in August showed that, subject to the impact of the national 4 standard, the survey’s sales expectations for the next period of time are still slightly pessimistic. National 4 standards in different cities or announced the implementation, or delayed implementation, or remain silent in the state of confusion aggravated the wait-and-see mood of consumers, and formed a significant drag on heavy truck sales.

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