Solar power can be as cheap as coal power within two years

With regard to how we will use renewable energy in the coming decades, it seems that every day there is a new kind of prediction. In two years we will use solar energy? Or five years? Will we use more or less nuclear energy? The expert is love prophecy. Here, we have gathered some of the most exciting (and most upsetting) predictions that have been made in recent months. We cannot know the prophet, and I can't tell which one of these is correct, but since there are so many options, someone will always be a genius.

Five predictions about future energy predictions: Solar energy will be more economical than fossil fuels within 10 years. This prediction is made by the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE). According to the organization, within a decade, solar photovoltaic systems may eventually become the most economical power supply method, but this depends on the solar energy industry continuing to rapidly improve the energy efficiency of solar cells and create economies of scale. “As the cost of solar power generation continues to decline compared to traditional energy sources, we will see an astonishing market penetration. I suspect that the only bottleneck in growth is supply. I am convinced that solar photovoltaics will become one of the key elements in our response to the near-long term energy challenge. "The president of the IEEE, James Prendergast, said in a statement. However, the road ahead is still long--renewable energy currently accounts for only 13% of global energy consumption.

Prophecy: Solar power generation will be as cheap as coal-fired power within two years, waiting for a decade. “Bloomberg New Energy Finance Forum” believes that solar power will be able to be cheaper in the power grid in two years. (At this point, solar power and fossil fuels are generally cheaper.) ). In areas such as the Middle East, where solar energy is extremely abundant, researchers claim that solar energy has a (price) competitiveness. The current cost of using coal to produce a watt of electricity is about 7 cents, and the use of solar energy to produce a watt of electricity is 22 cents. By 2013, the two prices are expected to be flat. But what about the oversupply of natural gas? Will that slow down the development of solar energy?

Prediction: Natural gas will kill renewable energy According to a report by Reuters, in the next few years, natural gas produced from shale will kill the renewable energy economy. Although solar and wind energy prices continue to fall, natural gas will still maintain its cost advantage. Even if the cost of offshore wind power is expected to be equal to that of the day's heat in 2015 (according to the forecast of Germany's Yiang Power Plant), in order to cope with the absence of wind, backup power stations need to be built, which will incur additional costs. As long as the price is cheap, it is always easier for power plants to choose sustainable fossil fuels instead of intermittent renewable energy sources.

Prediction: The utilization of renewable energy will increase, but the utilization of coal and natural gas will also rise. The good news is: The International Energy Association believes that renewable energy will increase from 8% of total energy consumption in 2009 to 13% in 2035. The bad news is that the use of coal and natural gas will also increase. From 2009 to 2035, the use of coal energy will increase by 25%, while the production of shale gas will increase by nearly 4 times in the same period. To reduce carbon emissions, it seems unlikely.

Prediction: By 2050, 100% of the electricity in the world will come from renewable energy. Of course, this is unlikely, but a Stanford research team still believes that by 2050 our global electricity will come from renewable energy, provided that we command all New energy production companies will use renewable energy sources by 2030, and existing companies will complete the conversion by 2050. In this optimist prediction, 90% of energy production will come from wind and solar energy, and the remaining 10% from hydropower, geothermal and wave/tidal power generation. Hydrogen powered fuel cells will be used in cars, trains, ships and other vehicles, while the aircraft will use hydrogen fuel. The only question is: I do not know how to let the fossil fuel enterprise completely disappear. This is a daydream at best, but we should at least have this desire. In 2050, check again.