Dual-accelerated inversion of car companies will check the excess capacity of new energy vehicles

The ban on the sale of traditional internal combustion engines continues to brewing, and domestic car companies have also started ambitious electrification strategies.

A few days ago, Changan Automobile (13.760, -0.09, -0.65%) released a large-scale "Shangri-La" strategy, plans to invest more than 100 billion yuan in the entire industry chain, by 2025 to achieve full switch from traditional cars to new energy vehicles. According to the plan, Changan Automobile will complete the establishment of three new energy-specific platforms in 2020; by 2025, it will completely stop the sales of conventional fuel vehicles.

Analysts pointed out that behind Chang’an’s radical entry into electrification, it is a typical microcosm of the future of traditional car enterprises’ layout, which is mainly affected by the dual superposition of policies and markets.

However, this is the first car company in China to announce the complete suspension of sales of traditional internal combustion engines. Changan Automobile's "Shangri-La" strategy is so radical that it is a gamble or is it only for the eye? Can it be achieved in the next 8 years? What impact will this have on the entire automotive industry?

China's first car company announced the suspension of sales schedule

The new energy new strategy launched by Changan Automobile, the “Shangri-La Plan”, plans to complete the construction of three new energy-specific platforms by 2020; it will start to completely stop the sales of conventional fuel vehicles and achieve the electrification of full spectrum products in 2025.

According to the plan, Chang'an Automobile will launch 21 models of new pure electric vehicles in various forms before 2025, and 12 plug-in hybrid products will achieve “5 minutes of charging and 100 kilometers of battery life”. The cruising range will exceed 1,000 kilometers.

In order to ensure the smooth implementation of this plan, Changan Automobile will carry out large-scale investment, and will accumulatively invest more than 100 billion yuan in the entire industry chain by 2025: including investment of 30 billion yuan in power batteries; in the area of ​​sharing and charging facilities and services It invested 20 billion yuan; invested 10 billion yuan in new energy proprietary platforms; and invested 40 billion yuan in R&D of new energy products.

In terms of technology research and development, Changan will rely on the global R&D system, 11,000 R&D personnel, more than 400 experts of 16 nationalities, more than 10 “thousand person plan” experts, and form a new energy business unit, as well as PHEV, EV, High-tech internal combustion engines and other areas of leading technology reserves, build the most powerful new energy research and development capabilities.

In order to integrate the entire new energy industry chain, Changan Automobile will hand in strategic partnerships such as Weilai Automobile, Bosch Group, and the Ningde Times to conduct in-depth cooperation in battery energy density research, charging methods, establishment of industry standards, and travel plans to create new energy sources. Ecosphere.

This is the first car company in China that has thrown such a clear schedule to stop the sale of conventional internal combustion engines, and it is also a global car enterprise that has earlier achieved comprehensive electrification.

Compared with Changan Automobile, multinational giants are more cautious about the development of mid- and long-term new energy vehicles. Among them, Mercedes-Benz plans that by 2025, sales of new energy vehicles will account for 15% to 25%; BMW also plans to expand new energy vehicles to 25 by 2025, and sales of new energy vehicles will account for 15% of overall sales - 25 %; while Volkswagen is planning to fully enter the era of electrification by 2030.

Judging from the planning goals and the current scale, to achieve full electrification within the next eight years, Chang'an Automobile will be very difficult. In the first nine months of this year, Changan New Energy Automobiles sold 35,000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 150%. Even though it is expected to exceed 50,000 full-year sales, it will only account for 3.33% of its annual target of 1.5 million passenger vehicles.

Speed ​​up the layout further

In fact, behind the "Shangri-La" strategy of Chang'an Automobile, it is a typical case of car companies racing in the new energy vehicle market.

On October 24th, less than a week after Changan Automobile released its Shangri-La strategy, the Shenyang Batteries Center under Brilliance BMW officially opened its doors. This is a major move by BMW to accelerate the deployment of new energy vehicle strategies in China.

It is reported that the center is located in the plant area of ​​Shenyang Tiexi Powertrain Factory, with localized R&D as the leading force, and is committed to creating a more localized high-voltage power battery technology that meets the requirements of luxury automobile brands. The BMW Brilliance Power Battery Center is also the third company in the world and the first complete power battery center outside Germany. It integrates battery development, production and testing, and uses innovative and internally customized production processes.

Another luxury brand Mercedes-Benz, its first pure electric EQ production model will be domestically produced by 2020, and will partner with Beijing Automotive Group to establish the first battery production base outside of Germany.

Since the beginning of this year, in response to the pressure of the “double-integration” policy and the rapid development of new energy vehicles, multinational car companies have set off a “new energy joint venture”.

In June, Volkswagen AG and Jianghuai had already prepared a joint venture agreement in advance. Following the trend, Ford and Zotye also succeeded in August. In the same month, Dongfeng teamed up with the Renault-Nissan Alliance to jointly develop and sell electric vehicles. Recently there was rumor that the Great Wall cooperated with BMW, or it will introduce MINI electric cars domestically to focus on new energy fields.

The analysis pointed out that car companies are accelerating the strategic layout of new energy. In the short-term and mid-term, they will respond to the “double-integration” policy. The long-term is optimistic about the prospect of new energy vehicles.

According to statistics, in September this year, the production and sales of new energy vehicles completed 77,000 vehicles and 78,000 vehicles, respectively, an increase of 79.7% and 79.1% year-on-year respectively. The production and sales of pure electric vehicles were all completed 64,000 vehicles, an increase of 85.2% and 83.4% year-on-year respectively; the production and sales of plug-in hybrid vehicles were completed 13,000 and 14,000, respectively, an increase of 57.6% and 61.9% respectively.

On this basis, in the first nine months of this year, the production and sales of new energy vehicles completed 424,000 vehicles and 398,000 vehicles, respectively, an increase of 40.2% and 37.7% over the same period of the previous year. Among them, the production and sales of pure electric vehicles completed 348,000 and 325,000 vehicles, respectively, an increase of 51.6% and 50.1% over the same period of the previous year; the production and sales of plug-in hybrid vehicles completed 76,000 and 73,000 vehicles, respectively, over the same period of last year. Increased by 4.0% and 0.6%.

In terms of battery usage data, the new energy vehicle battery usage amounted to 3.41 million degrees in September this year, an increase of 1.21 million degrees from the 2.21 million degree in September 2016. From the perspective of vehicle breakdown, the installed capacity of passenger car battery in September was about 1.31 million degrees, an increase of 430,000 degrees from last year's 870,000 degrees; the battery installed capacity of passenger car battery was 1.28 million degrees; the battery installed capacity of special car battery was 810,000 degrees, which was the same Increased by 750,000 degrees.

Start investigation of excess capacity of new energy vehicles

However, when the wave of investment in the industry surpassed one wave, the relevant departments noticed the signs of overheated investment and began to guard against overcapacity.

A few days ago, at the promotion meeting jointly organized by five ministries and commissions including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Finance, and the Ministry of Commerce, the Deputy Director of the Department of Economic Development of the Ministry of Finance Song Qiuling It is revealed that new energy vehicle production capacity is being investigated to confirm whether there is surplus.

Judging from the capacity of new energy vehicles, the total production capacity of the 14 new energy vehicle manufacturers approved by the NDRC has exceeded 800,000, and the total investment will reach 27 billion yuan. In addition to the approved projects, more than 30 new energy automobile projects are being built around the country. According to the existing capacity planning estimate, by 2020, China's new energy (8.590, -0.10, -1.15%) vehicle production capacity will reach 5 million vehicles, far exceeding the national plan of 2 million vehicles.

If you look at the investment in the last two years, the value is even greater. From 2015 to the first half of 2017, there were more than 200 new energy vehicle vehicle production projects in China, involving an investment of over one hundred trillion yuan, and over 20 million vehicles have been published.

Starting from the third quarter of this year, the relevant departments began to re-examine the new energy vehicle project, which has delayed the approval of new energy production companies, and formed a sharp contrast with the rapid issuance of licenses in the first half of this year.

According to Wang Binggang, special expert of the major scientific and technological projects of the Ministry of Science and Technology of the People's Republic of China Ministry of Science and Technology and leader of the New Energy Automotive Technology Innovation Engineering Experts Group, there are currently some companies in the market that have obtained qualifications, but do not do R&D and do not go into production. Say some of the companies that produced passenger cars, special vehicles, logistics vehicles, or modified cars, this may be the focus of this capacity inspection.

However, some analysts pointed out that when the auto industry strides forward into new energy vehicles, it is difficult for the internal combustion engine and electric vehicles to distinguish between winners and losers. The two should not be antagonistic either. Car companies should combine the strengths and advantages of the two to produce More efficient vehicles.