Heavy trucks need to reach a 25% ratio

The Regulations for the Adjustment and Revitalization of the Automobile Industry, which was formally promulgated on the 20th, explicitly mentions that "the proportion of heavy trucks that occupy trucks should exceed 25%." Currently, in the various commercial vehicle products, the sales volume of heavy trucks is the largest, and the overall light trucks are also in decline. Heavy-duty trucks (including non-integrated vehicles) accounted for only 16.5% of the total trucks in 2008. In the first two months of the year, their market share accounted for only 11.4%, and sales volume fell by nearly 30% year-on-year, due to the lack of corresponding policy support. The situation is rather grim and not optimistic. The "planning" proposed to increase the proportion of heavy trucks to more than 25% of the share. Judging from the current market conditions, the industry is generally not optimistic. At the same time, with this issue, Gasgoo.com interviewed Huang Chenglin, deputy director and senior economist of the Dongfeng Motor Company's Management Department.

To achieve a share of more than 25% of heavy goods vehicles in trucks, I personally feel that this goal is less likely to be realized. First, the changes in the industrial structure are determined by the market, and the government can only play a guiding role. Second, the market structure of heavy trucks, medium-sized cards, and light trucks is relatively stable. There is no policy orientation or other external forces (the government has not yet enacted The relevant policies or measures for supporting the heavy truck industry are very unlikely to change greatly in this structure; finally, the demand side of vehicles like heavy trucks is often only a very large number of projects or infrastructures, and the scale is small or small. The construction of scale will basically depend on the medium-sized card or light truck, which greatly restricts the development of the heavy truck market.

The decline in heavy truck sales in January this year was mainly due to the impact of State III implemented last year. A large part of the potential purchasing power was basically released before the implementation of State III, resulting in a blowout in the heavy truck market in the first half of last year and a stagnation in the second half of the year. The demand in the entire market has shrunk dramatically. I personally think that the heavy truck market will show some signs of recovery in the second and third quarters of this year. However, in general, if we want to increase the proportion of heavy trucks to more than 25%, it will be difficult to achieve in a short period of time. Even after the introduction of favorable policies, it is difficult to fundamentally change the proportion of heavy trucks in trucks. After all, the market is the final leader.

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