Year-end inventory: China's auto market in 2011, the policy stepped on the brakes

2011 was a year in which China's auto market had been braked. This made many competitors uncomfortable, and companies without “fastened seat belts” were even hit hard. It seems that the heavy-duty brakes on this foot now mainly reflect some of the policy changes that the industry started this year.

The cancellation of small-displacement purchase tax incentives that began at the beginning of the year was considered to be one of the main reasons leading to the sharp drop in the auto market's rapid growth this year. Accompanied by the cancellation of subsidies for car-to-country and subsidy for auto scrap, these two factors are relatively effective for sales. Smaller policy. In fact, the cancellation of vehicle purchase tax concessions this year alone has limited impact on the auto market, especially for large-displacement vehicles that still maintain high growth. This policy adopts a step-by-step approach: This policy, which began in 2009, reduced the original 10% tax rate to 5%, and in 2010 it began to reduce to 7.5%. However, this policy has greatly stimulated consumer demand in the two years of implementation, making consumer spending fully released in the past two years, and even being overdrawn. In 2011, it was a turning point. On a large base, the growth of the auto market became smooth.

Subsequently, the automobile purchase restriction policy that Beijing introduced in February directly led to the sales of cars in the area falling into the ice caves. Beijing sold nearly 900,000 vehicles in the previous year, but now the government only issues 240,000 new licenses. Compared with the cancellation of the purchase tax preferential policy, there is almost no sign of the introduction of the purchase restriction policy. This has brought a lot of panic to the market. Car sales companies have rushed to adjust sales strategies in Beijing. Cities that are also facing congestion problems have also reported that similar measures will be taken. This disrupts the rhythm of some companies and makes them develop and implement. The production and sales strategy becomes more tangled. In fact, the purchase restriction issued by Guiyang, which belongs to the third-tier cities, in July proved that it is not redundant to spread the city's purchase restriction.

Then at the beginning of the National Day, the energy-saving vehicle subsidy standard that was implemented in June last year will also raise the threshold. The original model that could enjoy a subsidy of 3,000 yuan would need to meet the fuel consumption of 6.9 liters per 100 kilometers and below, which encourages energy conservation. Prior to the policy, due to the large number of covered vehicles, the basic policy became a policy of benefiting the people, and now it has become 6.3 liters. At this point, the series of stimulus policies launched by the Chinese automobile market from the 2008 financial crisis were basically terminated. The market’s expectation that the government will introduce stimulus policies in the short term is not strong, and consumption is gradually returning to rationality. This seems to be a good thing.

However, if we take the lens closer, we can see that the self-owned brand has become the biggest loser in the rapid decline in the overall auto market. In addition to the Japanese car companies severely hit by the earthquake, the independent brands have become the only market share in China’s auto market this year. The loss of self-owned brands appears to be the direct result of policy withdrawal. Independent brands are the main winners of the preferential policies of the previous two years. In fact, the weak competitiveness of self-owned brand products is the main reason. The future government's cultivation of long-term competitiveness of self-owned brands will be one of the directions for policy formulation.

In addition to the aforementioned changes in market policy, the Chinese government is also actively promoting the development of automotive energy-saving and environmental protection technologies in 2011. These policies will effectively help the automotive industry to upgrade and transform. However, these policies have not yet finalized the implementation timetable, such as "Method and Indicators for Evaluation of Passenger Vehicle Fuel Consumption (Phase III)" and "Development Plan for Automobile and New Energy Vehicle Industry". In addition, the "Three Guarantees" bill for protecting the interests of consumers has been dragged on again, causing disappointment. However, due to pressure from the environment and energy, it is expected that the government will speed up its efforts to promote energy conservation and environmental protection technology development.

A healthy market cannot always be driven by policy incentives, and the autonomous automobile industry cannot always rely on policies to support it. However, the market and industry need health and sustainable development, and policy norms and guidance are indispensable. Among them, the short-term benefits of enterprises and the long-term healthy development of the industry, market prosperity and the international competitiveness of independent industries, the interests of enterprises and consumers, how to balance the rapid development of the Chinese auto market is a very difficult proposition, but had to be resolved.