61st API Tracking Report: Drugs Falling High
2018-05-07 15:01:06
Industry analysts pointed out that the raw material drug market is not terribly dire, and what is terrible is the miscalculation of future market conditions.
From the soaring price of penicillin industrial salt in the second half of 2006, China's raw material drugs, especially vitamins, penicillin industrial salt and other traditional bulk drugs have experienced an unprecedented situation.
Now two years later, all statistics show that this high fever started in 2006 has gradually receded since August of this year.
Slowing growth
At the 61st API CHINA Autumn Fair, Shen Yinji, deputy director of the Expert Committee of the China Chemical Pharmaceutical Industry Association, and Wu Huifang, chief researcher of Health Net, made a summary of the medical market conditions from January to August this year.
According to the follow-up monitoring by the Pharmaceutical and Pharmaceutical Industry Association, the pharmaceutical industry ranks fourth in the country's 39 major industrial categories, and ranks behind the coal, oil and natural gas extraction and home building materials industries. The growth rate was slightly lower than that in the first five months, but it was still better than the national average level of the industry, and in particular the profit was higher than the national level by nearly 20 percentage points.
According to the statistics of the Chemical Pharmaceutical Industry Association, the chemical and pharmaceutical industry still maintained a relatively good running trend, but it slightly decreased compared with the increase from January to May. From January to August, the main business income was 256.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28.4%, a decrease of 1.1 percentage points from January to May, and a profit of 25.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 51.4%, a decrease of 5.6 percentage points from January to May; The value of export delivery was 34.2 billion yuan, an increase of 24.6% year-on-year, and 1.6 percentage points lower than the January-May period.
From January to August, the value of raw material drug exports reached 29 billion yuan, up 30.2% year-on-year. Statistics from the General Administration of Customs show that although the increase in the amount of raw material medicines in the first half of the year was relatively large, the number of exports only increased by 3.4%. From January to August, the profits of enterprises based on the production of APIs increased by an average of over 80%.
From January to August, there was a significant drop in profits for pharmaceutical manufacturers compared with the increase from January to May. From January to August, the profit was 15.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 36.5%, a decrease of 7.2 percentage points from January to May; the export delivery value was 5.2 billion yuan, an increase of 0.4% year-on-year, and a 15-percent decrease from the January to May increase. Excess; main business income was 138.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.7%, which was basically the same as the increase from January to May.
What is particularly noteworthy is that due to the continued deterioration of the international financial situation, foreign investors have started to delay payment. According to statistics from the Chemical Pharmaceutical Industry Association, the net amount of accounts receivable in the first eight months increased by 22.2% over the same period of last year. Although the increase was lower than that in January-May, it still increased by 10 percentage points over the same period of last year.
Previously, the Chemical and Pharmaceutical Industry Association had organized 136 companies to conduct research. The results showed that among the 136 companies, 115 enterprises were profitable, accounting for 84.6% of the total; enterprises with more than 30% increase in profit accounted for 39% of the total; In the first five months of the 47% rate, companies with a year-on-year decline in profits increased from 33.8% in the previous five months to 37.5%, indicating that corporate profit margins are shrinking.
As of the end of June, the total number of loss-making enterprises was 19, which was a decrease of 5 from the previous year. However, the losses of loss-making enterprises continued to expand, reaching 200 million yuan in the first half of this year, an increase of 20 million yuan from the figure at the end of May.
Speculation
Health Net's chief researcher Hui-Fang Wu analysis, eight months of 2008, the growth momentum of China's pharmaceutical import and export trade is still very strong, even in the face of weak global economic development, national monetary policy tightening and adverse external production costs of enterprises, etc. Factors, on the statistical data level, the import and export volume of drugs in the first 8 months was US$5.16 billion and US$9.579 billion, respectively, a year-on-year increase of 28.9% and 38.68%. “However, this increase reflects the difference in gold content from previous years. This year was achieved in the context of a large depreciation of the US dollar and a depreciation of the domestic renminbi. In this case, the actual growth rate of pharmaceutical exports may be relatively slow. , and may even have been reduced to single digits. And the depreciation of the dollar means that the price of imported drugs is cheaper, but in fact did not get rapid growth in the first 8 months of this year." Wu Huifang said.
“After the strong export situation in the fourth quarter of 2007, the first five months after the Spring Festival in 2008 reached new record highs. However, by August this year, the situation has turned a turning point. This is not normal. It is not difficult to see that the reasons for this are as follows: From July to July, the export growth rate was more than five months in a row. In some months, the year-on-year increase was even as high as 50% or more. Exhaustion of procurement resources was exhausted in advance. How could downstream digest the many things that come in?
In addition, the subprime mortgage crisis that has been clearly seen has caused difficulties in capital turnover and prolonged recovery periods. Experts participating in this session of the raw material medicine trade are not very optimistic about the market from the end of this year to the first half of next year.
In 2007, it was the launch year of raw material medicine market. A batch of bulk and export-type APIs represented by vitamin B2 began a wave of price increases. These price-raising varieties are basically concentrated in China’s most traditional and low The added value of APIs, and they constitute the mainstream of China's API exports, which is also the main reason for the large increase in China's API exports this year.
In this regard, Wu Huifang believes that this aspect is related to the overestimation of the influence of the industry on the Beijing Olympics; on the other hand, it is that some purchases and sales are deliberately raising prices for speculative purposes, causing false prosperity, which masks the real Supply and demand balance. Last year, vitamin B2 and penicillin all had an excessive increase in prices, which led to the subsequent "overkill market." It turns out that by 2008, many products took only one year or more than one year to complete a price cycle.
"The market is not terrible, what is terrible is the miscalculation of the future market," said Wu Huifang.
From the soaring price of penicillin industrial salt in the second half of 2006, China's raw material drugs, especially vitamins, penicillin industrial salt and other traditional bulk drugs have experienced an unprecedented situation.
Now two years later, all statistics show that this high fever started in 2006 has gradually receded since August of this year.
Slowing growth
At the 61st API CHINA Autumn Fair, Shen Yinji, deputy director of the Expert Committee of the China Chemical Pharmaceutical Industry Association, and Wu Huifang, chief researcher of Health Net, made a summary of the medical market conditions from January to August this year.
According to the follow-up monitoring by the Pharmaceutical and Pharmaceutical Industry Association, the pharmaceutical industry ranks fourth in the country's 39 major industrial categories, and ranks behind the coal, oil and natural gas extraction and home building materials industries. The growth rate was slightly lower than that in the first five months, but it was still better than the national average level of the industry, and in particular the profit was higher than the national level by nearly 20 percentage points.
According to the statistics of the Chemical Pharmaceutical Industry Association, the chemical and pharmaceutical industry still maintained a relatively good running trend, but it slightly decreased compared with the increase from January to May. From January to August, the main business income was 256.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28.4%, a decrease of 1.1 percentage points from January to May, and a profit of 25.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 51.4%, a decrease of 5.6 percentage points from January to May; The value of export delivery was 34.2 billion yuan, an increase of 24.6% year-on-year, and 1.6 percentage points lower than the January-May period.
From January to August, the value of raw material drug exports reached 29 billion yuan, up 30.2% year-on-year. Statistics from the General Administration of Customs show that although the increase in the amount of raw material medicines in the first half of the year was relatively large, the number of exports only increased by 3.4%. From January to August, the profits of enterprises based on the production of APIs increased by an average of over 80%.
From January to August, there was a significant drop in profits for pharmaceutical manufacturers compared with the increase from January to May. From January to August, the profit was 15.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 36.5%, a decrease of 7.2 percentage points from January to May; the export delivery value was 5.2 billion yuan, an increase of 0.4% year-on-year, and a 15-percent decrease from the January to May increase. Excess; main business income was 138.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.7%, which was basically the same as the increase from January to May.
What is particularly noteworthy is that due to the continued deterioration of the international financial situation, foreign investors have started to delay payment. According to statistics from the Chemical Pharmaceutical Industry Association, the net amount of accounts receivable in the first eight months increased by 22.2% over the same period of last year. Although the increase was lower than that in January-May, it still increased by 10 percentage points over the same period of last year.
Previously, the Chemical and Pharmaceutical Industry Association had organized 136 companies to conduct research. The results showed that among the 136 companies, 115 enterprises were profitable, accounting for 84.6% of the total; enterprises with more than 30% increase in profit accounted for 39% of the total; In the first five months of the 47% rate, companies with a year-on-year decline in profits increased from 33.8% in the previous five months to 37.5%, indicating that corporate profit margins are shrinking.
As of the end of June, the total number of loss-making enterprises was 19, which was a decrease of 5 from the previous year. However, the losses of loss-making enterprises continued to expand, reaching 200 million yuan in the first half of this year, an increase of 20 million yuan from the figure at the end of May.
Speculation
Health Net's chief researcher Hui-Fang Wu analysis, eight months of 2008, the growth momentum of China's pharmaceutical import and export trade is still very strong, even in the face of weak global economic development, national monetary policy tightening and adverse external production costs of enterprises, etc. Factors, on the statistical data level, the import and export volume of drugs in the first 8 months was US$5.16 billion and US$9.579 billion, respectively, a year-on-year increase of 28.9% and 38.68%. “However, this increase reflects the difference in gold content from previous years. This year was achieved in the context of a large depreciation of the US dollar and a depreciation of the domestic renminbi. In this case, the actual growth rate of pharmaceutical exports may be relatively slow. , and may even have been reduced to single digits. And the depreciation of the dollar means that the price of imported drugs is cheaper, but in fact did not get rapid growth in the first 8 months of this year." Wu Huifang said.
“After the strong export situation in the fourth quarter of 2007, the first five months after the Spring Festival in 2008 reached new record highs. However, by August this year, the situation has turned a turning point. This is not normal. It is not difficult to see that the reasons for this are as follows: From July to July, the export growth rate was more than five months in a row. In some months, the year-on-year increase was even as high as 50% or more. Exhaustion of procurement resources was exhausted in advance. How could downstream digest the many things that come in?
In addition, the subprime mortgage crisis that has been clearly seen has caused difficulties in capital turnover and prolonged recovery periods. Experts participating in this session of the raw material medicine trade are not very optimistic about the market from the end of this year to the first half of next year.
In 2007, it was the launch year of raw material medicine market. A batch of bulk and export-type APIs represented by vitamin B2 began a wave of price increases. These price-raising varieties are basically concentrated in China’s most traditional and low The added value of APIs, and they constitute the mainstream of China's API exports, which is also the main reason for the large increase in China's API exports this year.
In this regard, Wu Huifang believes that this aspect is related to the overestimation of the influence of the industry on the Beijing Olympics; on the other hand, it is that some purchases and sales are deliberately raising prices for speculative purposes, causing false prosperity, which masks the real Supply and demand balance. Last year, vitamin B2 and penicillin all had an excessive increase in prices, which led to the subsequent "overkill market." It turns out that by 2008, many products took only one year or more than one year to complete a price cycle.
"The market is not terrible, what is terrible is the miscalculation of the future market," said Wu Huifang.